The Three Numbers You Need
To calculate when you can retire, you only need three numbers:
- Current savings - What you have now
- Monthly savings - What you add each month
- Monthly expenses - What you spend (or will spend in retirement)
That's it. Everything else is detail.
The Formula
FIRE Number = Annual Expenses × 25
Years to FIRE = (FIRE Number - Current Savings) ÷ (Annual Savings + Investment Growth)
Let's make this concrete.
Example Calculation
Your situation:
- Current savings: $200,000
- Monthly savings: $2,000 ($24,000/year)
- Monthly expenses: $4,000 ($48,000/year)
Step 1: Calculate your FIRE number
$48,000 × 25 = $1,200,000
Step 2: Calculate the gap
$1,200,000 - $200,000 = $1,000,000 to go
Step 3: Factor in growth
With 7% average returns and $24,000/year contributions:
- Year 5: ~$450,000
- Year 10: ~$800,000
- Year 13: ~$1,200,000
Result: ~13 years to FIRE
Quick Reference
If you're starting from $100,000:
- Save $1,000/mo, spend $3,000/mo → 25 years to FIRE
- Save $1,500/mo, spend $3,000/mo → 20 years to FIRE
- Save $2,000/mo, spend $3,000/mo → 16 years to FIRE
- Save $2,500/mo, spend $3,000/mo → 13 years to FIRE
- Save $2,000/mo, spend $4,000/mo → 21 years to FIRE
- Save $3,000/mo, spend $4,000/mo → 15 years to FIRE
- Save $2,000/mo, spend $5,000/mo → 25 years to FIRE
- Save $4,000/mo, spend $5,000/mo → 14 years to FIRE
The Levers You Can Pull
1. Save More
Every $500/month extra shaves 2-4 years off your timeline.
2. Spend Less
Cutting $500/month from expenses does two things:
- Frees up $500/month for savings
- Reduces your FIRE number by $150,000
Double impact.
3. Earn More
Higher income only helps if you save the difference (not spend it).
4. Relocate
Moving to a lower-cost area can be the biggest lever:
- $6,000/month expenses = $1,800,000 FIRE number
- $2,928/month expenses (Portugal) = $878,400 FIRE number
That's potentially 10+ years difference.
Learn more about geographic arbitrage in our cheapest countries to retire abroad guide.
First need to understand how much you actually need? Read How Much Money Do I Need to Retire?
What About Social Security / State Pension?
If you'll receive guaranteed income in retirement, subtract it from your expenses.
Example:
- Expenses: $4,000/month ($48,000/year)
- Social Security: $1,500/month ($18,000/year)
- Gap to fund: $2,500/month ($30,000/year)
- FIRE Number: $30,000 × 25 = $750,000 (not $1.2M)
Government pensions effectively reduce your required savings by hundreds of thousands.
The Savings Rate Shortcut
Your savings rate predicts years to FIRE regardless of income:
- 10% savings rate: 51 years to FIRE
- 20% savings rate: 37 years to FIRE
- 30% savings rate: 28 years to FIRE
- 40% savings rate: 22 years to FIRE
- 50% savings rate: 17 years to FIRE
- 60% savings rate: 12 years to FIRE
- 70% savings rate: 8 years to FIRE
Calculate your savings rate:
Monthly Savings ÷ Monthly Income × 100 = Savings Rate %
Try It Now
Grab a pen:
- Your current retirement savings: $__________
- Your monthly savings: $__________
- Your monthly expenses: $__________
- Your FIRE number (expenses × 12 × 25): $__________
- The gap (FIRE number - current savings): $__________
Now you know where you stand.
Want a More Detailed Answer?
This calculation assumes:
- 7% average investment returns
- 3% inflation
- 30-year retirement
- 4% withdrawal rate
Real life has more variables: different return assumptions, social security timing, pension access ages, tax implications, and more.
For a personalized calculation that factors in all of this, use our free tool.
Ready for your personalized retirement date? Take our free 2-minute quiz and see exactly when you could retire.